Lester Brown's Plan B 4..0 versus Group Genie's Mighty Plan

by Tim Cimino

Lester Brown has done the world a tremendous service with his book Plan B 4.0. (The full book  is available as a free PDF download.) We admire the breadth and depth of his assessment of the problems. We're also broadly in agreement with his vision for restructuring the global economy. However, we feel that his plan fails in one essential area: It lacks the methods to get a majority of people engaged, soon enough. We feel that we offer people a much better strategy for action, and we will outline it in broad strokes in this article.

Before we present our strategy, we'd like  to repeat our praise of Lester Brown and his Earth Policy Institute. We encourage everyone to read Plan B 4.0. This book provides a comprehensive (though anxiety-producing) overview of the problems facing humanity.

Roughly speaking, my opinion of Plan B 4.0 is that it is 80% about the dire problems (in detail); 10% about the bare start of solutions that are beginning to become available (to offer a ray of hope); 9% policy recommendations; and 1% about what individuals can do.

The policy recommendations center on "making the market tell the real truth about the cost of goods" and "restructuring taxes." Brown calls for individuals to lobby their governments to ask them to lower income taxes, but raise taxes on environmentally harmful products. If gasoline, for example, causes seven dollars of damage to the environment, it should cost $7 more than the price at the pump. While this may seem ridiculous to some people, in the long run it's the only sustainable policy, and it fits in with our Golden Rule 2.0. I doubt that, if asked, Brown would call for these kinds of taxes restructuring overnight, and I doubt that he believes they are easily politically feasible. In fact, one thing that Brown does not seem to offer in the 4.0 version of his book is a viable political strategy. An incremental strategy makes sense, along with the necessary negotiations with other countries and trade groups.

The place where Plan B 4.0 is most deficient is in the section on what individuals can do. The very last two-and a-half page section of the book is called "What You and I Can Do." In it, you'll find that Brown offers sparse guidance on how individuals can make the lifestyle changes and do the needed amount of political action to cause big-picture change. In that section, he asks people to undertake at least 15 actions, most of them political actions. How are people supposed to do all this and maintain a normal life? His only guidance is to ask people to sketch out a plan for the "next year or so," and include what you want to do, how you hope to do it, and with whom you can work with to accomplish your goals. We think that his plan doesn't offer most people near enough support and structure to build the needed momentum for change.

So at Group Genie we've developed a new breed of programs that we call superprograms. These are multipurpose programs that allow people to balance their personal goals and personal growth with the world-changing actions we have been suggesting throughout this book. One is called All-Around.Org. Another is Fellowship of the Dream and one that’s in a game/team format is called MissionBall.Org. (All Around has many great materials, but Fellowship of the Dream is recommended as a structure because it's easier to understand.)

The four-part strategy behind these superprograms is very simple, but very powerful. Even if you don't use one of our programs, you can appreciate and apply our four-part strategy:

First, people need an ongoing structure for action. Making a splash with one big effort is not enough to change the world. If we are going to make lifestyle changes like recycling, less use of our cars, eating better, and so forth, we need an ongoing support system. It can be a small group like our weekly Goal and Growth group format. It can be a one-to-one Buddy system, in which you call or email a friend on a regular basis for support. It could even be a large group meeting such as our All Around large group format.  (You can certainly use any of these formats with groups you already belong to, such as eco groups, church groups or school groups.)

Second, most people will need to build up their spare capacity to act. This can mean any combination of the following: Build up spare time using time-management techniques. Build up spare funds through more meal preparation, shopping around for lower insurance, health care, phone service and other monthly costs. Build up your energy level through some exercise and dietary changes that give you more energy. This may seem daunting, but remember, you have the ongoing support of one or more people to change. And you also have a triple reason to build up your capacity: so you can better reach your own short-term goals and personal fulfillment; so you have a better life in long-term, and so you have energy and resources to make do some of the world-changing actions we suggest.

The third part of superprograms is that they have a built-in expectation for you to do actions that change the economy, environment and political situation. (Of course, superprograms are nonpartisan. They contain methods for how to change, with only a common sense values built in about what to change.) Those using any of the free online superprograms can find assessments like the Ecological Lifestyle Assessment, and also suggestions for a variety of actions in something called the CLEAR Action Menu.

This is where things can seem overwhelming, but we offers a suggestion for making it all seem doable and less stressful. We say, “If it took you the ten or so years of growing up to get into certain lifestyle habits, give yourself ten years to gradually make major lifestyle changes.” We offer a list of 16 major changes, and suggests making two a year. Here’s a partial list: regular exercise, a health diet more in tune with nature, recycling, regular political action, socially responsible shopping and socially responsible investment.—One major change every six months requires a stretch, but you can imagine that if people have ongoing personal support, and have developed some extra time and money, most people can do it.

The fourth part of superprograms is perhaps the most powerful and exciting part. Once you have made a few lifestyle changes, and have had some success, you invite two or three others to join. If everyone does this, it leads to a chain reaction of empowerment. A chain reaction that doubled every six months could spread around the world in 17 years. Here are  the numbers:

                                   Number of People

                                             1
6 months                            2
1 year                                  4
1.5 years                             8
2 years                                16
2.5 years                             32
3 years                                 64
3.5 years                             128
4 years                                256
4.5 years                             512
5 years                                1,024
5.5 years                             2,048
6 years                                4,096
6.5 years                             8,192
7 years                                16,384
7.5 years                             32,768
8 years                                65,536
8.5 years                             131,072
9 years                                262,144
9.5 years                             524,288
10 years                              1,048,576
10.5 years                           2,097,052
11 years                              4,194,304
11.5 years                           8,388,608
12 years                              16,777,216
12.5 years                           33,554,432
13 years                               67,108,864
13.5 years                           134,217,728
14 years                              268,435,456
14.5 years                           536,870,912
15 years                              1,073,741,824
15.5 years                           2,147,483,618
16 years                              4,294,967,296
16.5 years                           8,5899,34,592     (more than the current world population)
17 years                              17,179,869,184     (more than highest predicted population)
 
The last group, the group that starts in Year 17, would just be beginning to make the major lifestyle changes. So add a decade for them, and we have 27 years. Add 20-30 years for institutional change.—It will take at least that long for political and economic structures to change. You can imagine a community changing in five years, a region in 15-20, and a nation in 20-30. Then add another 10 years for recovering from set-backs and disasters. All, together we would have transformed the world in 50-60 years, well before the end of the century.

If you want to tell us that this is still too simplistic, consider this:  We estimate that about one-tenth of the world is middle class and middle-income, about 600 million people. Let’s assume that only half of them, 300 million, can build up their spare money and save $100 a month, and build up their spare time and save three hours a week, which we will value at $6.75 an hour. For the middle class, this could be done with ongoing support and some effort and small sacrifices. We calculate that this would yield $500 billion a year. Now, give it to strategic charities. Some of these charities provide development support to enable poor people to sustain themselves, helping them gradually reach the middle class. Some of these nonprofits advocate political changes that produce environment and economic restructuring that we have written about in this book.

What is $500 billion a year? It’s a huge sum! It’s more than the annual U.S. Foreign Aid budget. It’s more than the annual UN operating budget. It’s more than the total donations of the 1,000 most generous corporations in the world. And it’s more than these three sums combined. It’s a small global force for change. (For more details, see 500B.)

[Note:  The $500B a year is also far more than the $190B that Lester Brown estimated was needed to meet social goals (ending hunger, poverty, etc.) and restore the Earth.  Remember, however, that estimate was before the great financial crisis.  We expect that the price tag to go up each year that humanity delays.  We also expect that the recent financial crisis will make it harder for nations to want to foot the bill.  Hence the increased importance and criticality of our 500B idea, and other other upgrades!]

Our approach totally depends on people believing that small efforts can add up. One of the pillars of our approach is a trust in arithmetic, that small numbers add up.  We say, “Raindrops make rivers, and rivers move mountains.”

We also apply the strength-in-number approach politically in our Proof Through the Night nonpartisan program. In the political section on MightyPlan.Org, we have numbers to show that "We the People" can completely outgun narrow special interest groups with only a few hours a month effort, and less than five dollars a month.  

In summary, we feel that Plan B 4.0 and Mighty Plan are most powerful together. Brown's book excels at a description of the many problems we face. Both books offer complementary visions (though we come at ours from a different direction.) But we think that Mighty Plan is superior at offering people support systems and strategies, so that they don't become overwhelmed, and so that they can balance their personal goals with repairing and renewing the world.

Finally, we completely agree with Lester Brown's theme that we must mobilize at war-time speed. He draws on the history of WWII for an example, and says we are in a race, trying to cause political tipping points to tip the right way, before environmental tipping points tip the wrong way. The scary thing is that we don't know how close we are to a disastrous environmental tipping point. Group Genie's parent organization is named World Peace One, and draws on the same world-war theme. (While we give Brown credit for promoting the world war metaphor in his latest books, World Peace One, our parent organization, uses the same metaphor and was incorporated much earlier, in 1988.)

With Lester Brown, we believe the situation is urgent. We call on the middle-income people of the world to mobilize because they are the ones with the the economic and political power. If you do the numbers, the rich don't have enough wealth to turn things around. And of course governments get their money from the people. Nor does the nonprofit sector have near enough assets. It is only the middle income people of the world who can do it -- if they act before the middle income group disappears. Once again, we say, "It's you and me, or it's no one."

[Those wanting to volunteer for Group Genie, or enlist in our FARN (Fast Action Response Network) can contact us at  GroupGenieFARNntain@gmail.com]