Project Cluetrain

 

Summary: Many people are unaware or in denial about the severity of current problems. The goal of this project is to make people aware of the problems, the inadequacy of current approaches, and even the “problems behind the problems” that keep much of humanity locked on target for great misery or suffering.

“Cluetrain” is a new word that connotes clueing people in, with a series of ideas or facts.

The purpose of this project is twofold: First, to help people more earnestly embrace the upgrades like Helpers Helper, Superprograms and PTTN; but second, it's to help people grasp how fragile and delicate the global situation is, so that they can cherish whatever time and quality of life each of us still has.

Part of Project Cluetrain’s approach is to make people aware of the limitations of facts and arguments, especially when people are getting payoffs for believing something that's not completely true.

Another theme of Cluetrain is to get people to think of the big picture and work on the most important projects, at the same time leaving aside small controversies and also lesser ways to do good.  In other words,  “In the light of a greater truth, a smaller truth casts a shadow.” 

 

Our Reasons for Pessimism

 

1)  Repeated warnings from authoritative groups.

 

The Limits of Growth,  Donella Meadows, et al, an MIT study. 1972. They ran several computer simulations and determined that a breakdown of civilization would occur roughly around 2050. They ran variations, assuming a doubling of available resources, or a doubling of the capacity to decrease air and water pollution, or a modest increase in population, and the crises point only moved out two or three decades.

 

Beyond the Limits repeat of the MIT study with updated data. 1992. Basically the same conclusion as before.

 

World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity  (1992) 1,700 leading scientists signed it.

 

Excerpt: “…We the undersigned, senior members of the world's scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it, is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.”  [Text of the Warning]

 

WorldWatch Institute Reports   From 1974 to the present, Lester Brown et. al.

 

Plan B 3.0,  Lester Brown    (2008)

The entire book can be found online here. The overview chapter is recommended.

Before the 2008 economic crisis, Lester Brown estimated that the situation could be stabilized if humanity “mobilize at wartime speed.”  He called for $190 billion. Our analysis of the book is that it is a great try but falls short: It’s excellent at detailing the problems. It’s good at pointing to needed policies. It completely falls short of a viable political plan or movement to produce the needed policy changes. If you read the last three pages, in the “What you and I can do” section, you only see a vague list and no reason to believe enough people will act.

 

2)  The warnings were essentially ignored.

 

Even today, when there is a general awareness of global warming, and perhaps great anxiety, there’s still not a widespread acceptance of responsibility.

 

3)  Many problems are reaching crisis levels.

                        

*  Five major river systems are not reaching the ocean most of the time. The Yellow River in China , the Colorado River in the US, the Nile in Egypt, Ganges and a river in Pakistan.

 

*  In India the water table is dropping three feet a year, and they must drill down 200 feet for fresh water.

 

*  Foreignpolicy.com keeps track of the number of failed states (Failed States Index) where the government has essentially collapsed or is close to collapse. When the infrastructure collapses, panic, crime and corruption grow, and civil wars are normal as conflicting group struggle for power. 

 

4)  When you approach most people they usually deny the severity of the problems.  The denial may have its source in any of the following:

 

Over-simplified optimism, based on any of the following sources:  Faith in the free market // Faith in technology  // Faith in government  // Faith in God as magician who would never let this happen.

 

Distrust of statistics: While it’s true that you can’t believe all the statistics you hear, here’s a way to get a gut estimate of the severity of the problem. Just as you don’t have to take samples of the entire ocean to conclude that it’s salty, here’s a way to estimate if humanity is making an adequate response: Take the assessment, or skim the assessment at  Ecological Lifestyle Assessment and think of several people that you know and how they would respond. The assessment approximates what it would take to live sustainably. Even many progressive people fall short.

 

Fatalism: There have always been wars and suffering, and since human nature doesn’t change there always will be wars and great suffering.

 

[Here is our counterargument to fatalism: 1] while there have always been wars and suffering in parts of the world, in other parts of the world people have had the skills, knowledge and political structures to minimize suffering. Saying that humanity will always fail because it’s failed in the past is like a man saying that because he has failed to attract women, he always will fail. He’s created a self-fulfilling prophecy. The way forward for him is 1) to give up his self-fulfilling prophecy. And 2) to learn skills and behaviors that would attract women. In the same way, humanity has to give up the self-fulfilling prophecy of failure, and also learn the skills that bring about a peaceful, sustainable world. Superprograms can accelerate the learning process.

 

 

 

5)  Population is still growing. Currently it’s 6.9 billion, in 2011 it will be 7.0 billion. It’s expected to stabilize around 9.1 billion. It’s an accelerator of resource shortages and global conflicts.

 

It will just intensify current economic, political and social problems.

 

 

6) Getting overall cooperation or buy-in is too slow. None of the global plans have anything close to critical mass.

 

You can google the following to see the lack of support:

Global Marshal Plan

Millenium Goals

Plan B 3.0

 

 

7) Some people will use the power of superprograms to accelerate the harm they do.

Superprograms are a technology that can be misused like any other. Aggressive for-profits and repressive governments will likely use corrupted superprograms to train their people to become more efficient. There’s no real way to stop them. In effect, it creates something like an arms race between those who use these programs to help themselves  and others, and those who use them for gain or to oppress others. –  Unless warned, decent people will tend to say to themselves, “Superprograms are a good idea. I will use them later, when it’s convenient.”  Meanwhile, oppressors and profit oriented people will say to themselves, “Superprograms will give the edge to whoever applies them first. I will use them as soon as possible!”   In other words, if decent people don’t mobilize, superprograms may do humanity more harm than good. [This is an important warning that’s emphasized in the S-bomb project.]

 

 

Our Reasons for Possible Optimism

 

1)  Chain reactions of empowerment can grow very rapidly. If each person in any of the superprograms recruits just two people within six months (and recruits no more), and if they follow suit in another six months, here is the possible impact of superprograms:

 

                               Number of People

 

                                                1

6 months                                 2

1 year                                      4

1.5 months                               8

2 years                                     16

2.5 years                                  32

3 years                                     64

3.5 years                                  128

4 years                                     256

4.5 years                                  512

5 years                                     1,024

5.5 years                                  2,048

6 years                                     4,096

6.5 years                                  8,192

7 years                                     16,384

7.5 years                                  32,768

8 years                                     65,536

8.5 years                                  131,072

9 years                                     262,144

9.5 years                                  524,288

10 years                                   1,048,576

10.5 years                                2,097,052

11 years                                   4,194,304

11.5 years                                8,388,608

12 years                                   16,777,216

12.5 years                                33,554,432

13 years                                   67,108,864

13.5 years                                134,217,728

14 years                                   268,435,456

14.5 years                                536,870,912

15 years                                   1,073,741,824

15.5 years                                2,147,483,618

16 years                                   4,294,967,296

16.5 years                                8,5899,34,592  (more than the current world population)

17 years                                   17,179,869,184  (more than highest predicted population)

.

 

 

2) We created three ideas that can create the wherewithal, the capacity for ongoing change:

 

Helper’s Helper   Estimate: $125 billion a year for charities, $325 for middle income people.

 

Proof Through the Night   Estimate: $350 billion to $1 trillion of $3.5 trillion US federal budget, and corresponding amounts from state budgets. (Could be applied to other democracies.)

 

Superprograms     Estimate: $1.5-$2 trillion a year, based on savings from better health, health, education costs, and ecological proactivity  (nipping things in the bud.)

 

Other ideas like the Surgeon’s Attitude, Supercharity and Preferential Helping can multiply the good done. Other ideas, such as the Ai Sakai can also help motivate action.

 

3)  We conditionally trust in the decency and intelligent self-interest of most people – but only if they are not in a crisis situation – and only if they act in time.

 

Decent people who are not in crisis will look ahead. They will buy “insurance.”  They will also share.

 

The middle-income people together are the only group that we believe has the potential wherewithal to stabilize the world. However, they are currently being decimated by the global recession. The clock is ticking and the window of opportunity is closing.

 

 

Current status: A discussion of the three levels of belief is on MightyPlan.Org, as is a more in-depth discussion of people’s false reasons for hope.

 

Plans and Needs: To organize a focus group/discussion group to process the best ways to get people to digest the current state of the world, and its likely impact on them and others—if nothing changes. One likely source of resistance is that people feel overwhelmed and pessimistic. Yet if people are presented with these solutions and methods, that should give them a reason to let go of some of their defense mechanisms.